Will President Bola Ahmed Tinubu retain his seat and return to office for a second term in 2027? Can he overcome the seeming groundswell of disillusionment by most Nigerians, especially those of northern extraction and win the next presidential election?
While many may rightly reckon that it is too early to allow the next election cycle preoccupy the mind of the former Lagos State governor and his allies, one thing that is common in politics is that, 24 hours is but a very short time that key earthshaking decisions can be taken, tumbling plans and plots of the opposition, making strategic in-roads into opposition territories, through well planned moves and maneuvres and all what not.
And so, it’ll be out of place for one to think that it is too early to talk about 2027 and how Tinubu hopes to win reelection and retain a seat he said was his turn to sit on while campaigning for the chair, even before the electoral umpire signalled the commencement of campaigns for the 2023 general elections.
The reality on the ground today is that many Nigerians are going through a nightmarish experience in many facets of life. Since President Tinubu announced the removal of subsidies as he took the oath of office on May 29, 2023, Nigerians have had to navigate a challenging economic landscape to survive daily.
While many criticised the timing of the subsidy removal, some believe it should not have been removed outright but in a piecemeal fashion. Well, whatever the opinion may be, the reality is that sustaining the subsidy was no longer a feasible and sustainable endeavour given the huge resources that went into this enterprise.
Most Nigerians believe that the man Tinubu had little or no concrete plans for Nigeria, especially having rode to power on the wild claim that it was his turn. So, is there anything that can be done differently to prevent Nigeria from plunging further into the abyss, as some Nigerians are pushing for? Is a change of leadership the solution? For the latter, not a few Nigerians will readily answer in the affirmative.
Read Also: Subsidy: NLC Ranks Nigeria Highest Country Exhibiting Wickedness Against Poor Citizens
Seemingly latching onto this call and the general situation of things in the country, a coalition championed by well-known political figures in the country has emerged. Those who have formed the coalition believe strongly that it will be used as a veritable vehicle to unseat President Tinubu and install a government that, for them, will be people-centric in all ramifications.
And so ahead of the much-anticipated 2027 polls, prominent political gladiators led by former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar, on July 2, 2025, unveiled the African Democratic Alliance (ADC) as the coalition party he and others will use to squarely tackle the All Progressives Congress (APC) in the next polls. But can the coalition square up to the APC as it claims, given that it is not just the ruling party in the country, but currently controls 23 out of Nigeria’s 36 states? In the Senate today, the ruling party has about 68 senators out of 109 to the good. They also have 207 House of Representatives members from a total of 360 lawmakers that make up the green chambers of the National Assembly.
Politics, as we know, is a game that thrives on numbers. And one who understands the importance of these figures can not dismiss the All Progressives Congress with the wave of the hand, more so as plans are afoot by more top political figures to join the ruling party ahead of the next polls, as many see the party as the only viable platform that can easily guarantee them electoral success in 2027.
But is it safe to write off the ADC coalition as some top APC members have said? It may be a risky venture given that it was a similar coalition that brought the APC to life when, in 2015, they toppled the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and ended their 16-year hold on power. One could say that the APC was formed from a conglomeration of parties, hence had the numbers and the unity needed to have upstaged the PDP, which had vowed in 2008 through its then national chairman, Prince Vincent Ogbulafor, that the party would be in power for 60 years.
It is instructive to note that the journey to the choice of ADC for the coalition frontliners did not come on a platter of gold. They had a series of high-octane meetings, consultations, and what have you to arrive at this point. They had initially settled for the All Democratic Alliance (ADA). They applied to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) to have the party registered, but delays by the electoral body compelled the coalition leaders to reconsider ADA, hence they elected to pitch their tent with the African Democratic Congress (ADC) as their operational platform in preparation for 2027.
For some clarity, the Nigeria National Coalition Group is championed by erstwhile Vice President and serial presidential hopeful, Atiku Abubakar; former Kaduna State Governor, Mallam Nasir El Rufai; former Anambra State Governor and Labour Party presidential candidate in the 2023 general election, Mr Peter Obi; former Senate President, David Mark; former Governor of Osun State, Rauf Aregbesola; former Governor of Rivers State and Transportation Minister, Rotimi Amaechi; former Attorney General of the Federation and late President Muhammadu Buhari’s ally, Abubakar Malami, who resigned from APC to team up with ADC, and many others.
Read Also: ADC Is The Credible Option For Nigeria Now – Ralphs Nwosu
While many Nigerians are sceptical about the coalition and some of its members, especially those that are championing it, the party remains unperturbed as they are optimistic that they will defeat the APC come 2027. But how will they achieve this big dream? Can the party remain united, work in one accord till the D-day as they seek to remove President Tinubu and APC from power?
There are many hurdles to cross for the coalition. First, it is convincing Nigerians that they have the right or better template to reposition the economy, ensuring that such reforms do not end only in the pages of newspapers but are felt directly by an average struggling Nigerian citizen.
Another remains doubts over some figures in the coalition that most Nigerians feel are part of those who conspired to bring Nigeria to its current sorry pass. And, of course, what many believe will cause division in the party is its choice of presidential candidate. Many are of the view that if the coalition must get the kind of support it needs, it should zone the ticket to the south so that the zone can complete its statutory eight years in office.
Some have narrowed it down to Mr Peter Obi, saying that anything short of the former Anambra State Governor as the party’s presidential candidate, the coalition will be all but gone. The thinking among Nigerians is that Peter Obi, as the coalition’s presidential candidate, will put the party on solid ground to confront the APC.
They point to his extraordinary outing during the 2023 presidential election, where, even without the so-called structure, he came third, winning 11 states plus the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Abuja.
Although not a few Nigerians claim that the man with a tiny voice did even better than what the electoral body announced. I digress. Mr Peter Obi, most Nigerians reckon, is the most suited to have a shot at the presidency as of today among those jostling for the ticket in the coalition.
Having propelled a little-known Labour Party (LP) to the front row of the political chessboard of the country, and given his high level of integrity and the massive followership he commands, especially among Nigeria’s young population, Peter Obi, to many, is the best bet to squarely face APC’s Bola Tinubu in 2027. But will Atiku Abubakar drop his eternal ambition of becoming president and yield the ticket to the south?
It is doubtful because, to date, he has neither come out plainly to say that he will not contest the 2027 presidential election nor has his body language given such a hint. Atiku Abubakar began his quest to be president in 1993, and to date, he has sought the nation’s number one seat on six occasions without success. While he may see the next polls as his last realistic opportunity to seek what seems to him a holy grail given his age, not a few Nigerians have already made it clear that if he grabs the ADC ticket, they will not hesitate to rather empty their votes for Tinubu and APC given that, among other things, it is the turn of the south to produce Nigeria’s President than vote for Atiku who hails from the North.
But will Atiku yield? It remains a big doubt as the former Vice President believes the political clout he has gathered across the country over the years, his seemingly endless wealth and popularity in the North will get him the coveted trophy this time. He is always optimistic about his chances and sees the 2027 polls as realistically being his last chance to take a shot at a seat he has craved for 32 years to no avail.
And so this and more, analysts contend, will be the ADC’s Achilles’ heel in their quest to topple the APC and take national power in 2027. The truth remains that, if the coalition gets its act right, despite the moral and ethical questions hanging on the neck of some of its leaders, they may give APC a run for its money at the next polls. But if they allow pigheaded power play, uncontrolled internecine wrangling and costly missteps to creep into their ranks, the party may crumble even before the umpire blows the whistle for the general elections.
Tinubu is not a small nut to crack politically, hence the coalition must tread gingerly and calculatively if they must give the former Lagos State Governor and his party a good fight. The disillusionment, endemic poverty, biting lack and more that have plagued Nigerians today offer a good chance for this coalition to take advantage of and possibly oust the APC from power. But can they? Their moves, decisions and strategies will answer the question in the coming months.
The APC is not resting on its oars. The party will not lie low and let ADC or any other party push them away from the top chair. Of course, the internal unrest in most political parties today is the clearest indication yet that they know the game. Governors are defecting to the party, same for National Assembly members and other political bigwigs. But while 2027 will not be a stroll in the park for APC, the party should also remain vigilant, making sure that nothing is left to chance.
Will they brush aside the mounting opposition against it and return to power in 2027?
The belly of time will unveil the answer.
